[ET Net News Agency, 19 January 2026] China's National Bureau of Statistics announced
that Mainland China GDP grew by 4.5 per cent year-on-year in Q4 2025, slightly above
market expectations of 4.4 per cent but just below the 4.8 per cent growth in Q3. For the
full year, GDP maintained 5 per cent growth. Following the data release, A-shares traded
choppily, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index saw little change. At midday, the HSI stood at
26,579, down 265 points or 1 per cent, with main board turnover exceeding HKD 132.9
billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was at 9,142, down 77 points or 0.8 per
cent, and the Hang Seng Tech Index stood at 5,755, a drop of 66 points or 1.1 per cent.

"Kingston Lin: HSI rally lacks real support, struggles to hold 27,000"

Over the past week, the HSI tried to break above 27,000 for four consecutive sessions
but failed to hold, and today it even opened more than 200 points lower, testing the
10-day moving average (around 26,600 points). Kingston Lin, a director of the Hong Kong
Institute of Financial Analysts and Professional Commentators Limited, told ET Net News
Agency that the HSI's rise from around 25,600 at the start of the year to nearly 27,000
was mainly driven by funds repositioning for the new year and positive performance in
overseas markets, rather than by any substantial good news. As a result, even if the index
breaks 27,000, it is unlikely to hold without stronger support.
In early trading, the HSI hovered around the 10-day moving average, but Lin noted that
this support may not be that robust. He said short-term attention should focus on whether
trading volume continues to shrink. If the HSI falls below the 10-day moving average,
there is a real risk of testing the 26,000 level.
Tensions continue to escalate between the US and Europe over the Greenland issue. US
President Trump announced that, starting 1 March, an additional 10 per cent tariff will be
imposed on goods imported from eight European countries, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France,
Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, with further increases to 25 per cent from
1 June, unless the US reaches a deal to purchase Greenland. Lin believes that while
Greenland is geographically distant from Hong Kong and the issue poses little direct risk
to Hong Kong stocks, it could still have an indirect effect on the market via investment
sentiment, currency movements, and gold prices.

"Domestic consumption sector mixed, BYD stands out among automakers"

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, preliminary data shows China's Q4 2025
GDP grew 4.5 per cent year-on-year, beating expectations of 4.4 per cent but slowing from
Q3 by 0.3 percentage points. In December, industrial production grew 5.2 per cent,
outperforming expectations of 5 per cent and up by 0.4 points from November. However,
retail sales rose just 0.9 per cent, missing expectations of 1.2 per cent and slowing by
0.4 points from November.
Lin said GDP growth was stronger in the first half of the year and weaker in the second,
which is a normal seasonal pattern, Q1 typically benefits from Lunar New Year consumption,
while Q4 spending by both companies and individuals tends to be more conservative. He
expects retail sales to improve during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday in February. He
also mentioned that the Mainland China government will hold a press conference tomorrow,
which may bring new stimulus announcements.
Lin expects the core of any new policy to focus on boosting domestic demand and
consumption, covering key areas such as dining, tourism, and automobiles, but with China's
economy showing steady growth and CPI back in positive territory, the likelihood of
aggressive new measures is low, and the government will probably continue with existing
policies.
Within the domestic consumption sector, Lin noted that aside from auto stocks, most
shares have performed only average, with no particular standouts. Among automakers, he is
most optimistic about BYD (01211) due to its strong export performance.